NextCure, Inc. (NXTC)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 reflected significant clinical progress but a large EPS miss driven by a one-time $17.0M license fee for SIM0505; GAAP diluted EPS was $(11.29) versus S&P Global consensus of $(4.615), a material miss. The company ended Q2 with $35.3M in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, guiding runway into mid-2026 .
• NextCure advanced LNCB74 to cohort 4 in Phase 1 and secured global (ex-China) rights to SIM0505, with first U.S. patient dosing targeted in Q3 2025; program updates targeted by Q4 2025 and proof-of-concept data in 1H 2026 .
• Guidance on cash runway was reduced from “second half of 2026” (Q1) to “mid-2026” (Q2), while clinical timelines were affirmed; the company regained Nasdaq minimum bid compliance post its 1:12 reverse split effective July 14, 2025 .
• Key stock catalysts near term: SIM0505 first U.S. dosing in Q3 2025 and LNCB74 program update by Q4 2025; estimate reset risk likely given the EPS miss and continued pre-revenue status .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• LNCB74 progressed to cohort 4 with plans to initiate backfill cohorts in 2H 2025; CEO: “We now are developing ADCs against two clinically validated targets… We are on track to dose our first SIM0505 patient in the United States this quarter” .
• SIM0505 license deal broadened pipeline; initial China Phase 1 data reported clinical activity (partial response) in cohort 1; IND assigned to NextCure in June 2025; U.S. dosing anticipated in Q3 2025 .
• Regained Nasdaq compliance post reverse split, removing a listing overhang; Simcere Zaiming’s $2.0M equity investment added liquidity and validation .

What Went Wrong

• EPS miss versus consensus driven by the $17.0M license fee expensed to R&D; GAAP diluted EPS $(11.29) vs consensus $(4.615), widening net loss YoY (Q2 2025: $(26.8)M vs Q2 2024: $(15.4)M) .
• Cash runway guidance trimmed to mid-2026 from second half of 2026 as cash and marketable securities fell to $35.3M from $68.6M at year-end (burn impacted by license and operating costs) .
• Going concern language introduced: management concluded substantial doubt about ability to continue as a going concern within one year absent additional capital or partnering .

Financial Results

YoY comparison (Q2 2024 → Q2 2025)

Sequential comparison (Q1 2025 → Q2 2025)

Estimates vs Actuals (S&P Global)

Segment breakdown

KPIs (Clinical/Corporate)

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q2 2025 earnings call transcript was available in our document set; themes are drawn from press releases and 10-Q.

Management Commentary

• CEO (Michael Richman): “Our recent strategic acquisition of the global rights, excluding greater China, for SIM0505… We are on track to dose our first SIM0505 patient in the United States this quarter and plan to provide program updates… by the fourth quarter of 2025, along with proof of concept data readouts in the first half of 2026” .
• Financial positioning: “Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities as of June 30, 2025 were $35.3 million… We expect current financial resources to be sufficient to fund operating expenses and capital expenditures into mid-2026” .
• R&D accounting detail: $17.0M license consideration for SIM0505 ($12M upfront + $5M due by earlier of financing event or 12/31/2025) expensed as IPR&D under ASC 730 due to no alternative future use .

Q&A Highlights

No Q2 2025 earnings call transcript was available; the company did not furnish an earnings call transcript in our document set for Q2 2025 [ListDocuments showed none; Internet site contained the press release only].

Estimates Context

• EPS missed S&P Global consensus by a wide margin due to the $17.0M license fee flowing through R&D: Actual EPS $(11.29) vs consensus $(4.615); two estimates contributed to the consensus. Revenue consensus was $0 given pre-revenue status; actual revenue not reported (operating expenses-only P&L) . Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Expect estimate resets: The large EPS miss was primarily driven by the non-recurring $17.0M license expense; future quarters’ EPS should normalize absent similar one-time charges, but operating burn remains elevated .
• Near-term catalysts: SIM0505’s first U.S. patient dosing in Q3 2025 and LNCB74 program updates by Q4 2025 are potential stock movers; proof-of-concept data in 1H 2026 could be a major inflection .
• Liquidity/runway: With $35.3M in cash/securities and runway into mid-2026, capital raising/partnering is likely before key Phase 2/3 investments; watch for BD or financing headlines .
• Structural de-risking: The 1:12 reverse split and regained Nasdaq compliance remove listing risk, potentially broadening investor access and liquidity .
• Macro/regulatory watch: U.S.-China relations and tariffs are specifically cited risks; monitor cross-border development and supply chain assumptions as SIM0505 evolves .
• Trading implications: Headlines on first dosing (SIM0505), cohort progress (LNCB74), and any partnering/financing could drive volatility; absence of revenue means sentiment is tied to clinical and corporate milestones .
• Accounting nuance: The expensing of acquired IPR&D under ASC 730 can create noisy GAAP results; focus on operating expense trajectories and cash burn alongside clinical milestones .

Citations:

• Q2 2025 8-K (Item 2.02 and press release) .
• Q2 2025 10-Q (financials, MD&A, reverse split, going concern, SIM0505 license terms) .
• Q1 2025 8-K press release .
• Q3 2024 8-K press release .

Estimates disclaimer: Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.